This is a completely unscientific, random, and unusual set of predictions for 2025 and beyond.
Grygo is the chief content officer for FTF & FTF News.
I’m a little late to the predictions party but please indulge me. This is a completely unscientific, random, and unusual set of predictions for this year and maybe a little beyond. I have scanned the usual suspects and unorthodox places and presented a variety of points of view while adding a few of my own.
Artificial Intelligence & Securities Operations
- From Me: “Many in securities operations, performance measurement, risk management, and derivatives are excited by the dream of artificial intelligence (A.I.) bringing a symphonic orchestration of efficiency to their worlds. But the hype around A.I.-based technologies is ebbing and established IT (and manual) systems will be getting their first taste of machine learning, generative A.I., large language models (LLM) and beyond. If A.I. is to succeed in a major way, implementers have to create data models that avoid generated hallucinations, have the capacity to keep learning, and augment the work of humans. If nothing else, even A.I. hype could pave the way for fully automated and far more efficient systems.”
- From Tim Lind, managing director of DTCC Data Services: “2024 was a year of transformation for asset servicing, driven by data-centric approaches that leverage new data sources to enable greater integrity and insight into valuation, risk management and liquidity dynamics. A.I. and cloud-based data marketplaces will accelerate transformation of the data supply chain by replacing point-to-point connectivity between institutions with collaborative alternatives that focus on sharing, rather than sending data.”
- From BeyondTrust: AI2 Bursts its Bubble, Bringing Down the Hype of the AI Threat: “The Artificial Inflation (AI) of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) — or AI2 — has already peaked in 2024. Watch as the bubble relentlessly bursts across multiple verticals throughout 2025. While some of the promises of A.I. have come true, and technology (like ChatGPT and its plugins) will continue to impress with its capabilities, AI-based technologies have largely failed to live up to the mountainous hype. … In 2025, we expect the industry to pull back on the promises, investment, and hype of new A.I. capabilities and settle down into what is real versus marketing noise.” (More from “Cybersecurity Trends for 2025” can be found here: https://shorturl.at/LNZvM )
Digital Assets &Operations
- From Me: “With more than one green light from Trump Team 2.0, the SEC and CFTC will be moving fast to clarify the rules of the road for cryptocurrencies. The SEC has already created a crypto task force and is getting ready for a pro-crypto chairman. The former CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam called again for crypto guardrails as he began his exit. There may also be a battle royale between the two regulators over which agency should oversee crypto markets. It will make for some interesting regulatory fireworks.”
- Frank La Salla, president, CEO, and director of DTCC: “Technologies such as blockchain and the cloud will play a crucial role in the build out and interconnectedness of the digital financial ecosystem. DTCC will continue to serve as a strategic partner to the industry by advancing acceptance and adoption of digital assets, focusing on opportunities to tokenize collateral and funds, and leveraging our existing clearing and settlement capabilities to facilitate the listing of digital funds on exchanges as well as secondary trading.”
- From Nadine Chakar, managing director, Global Head of DTCC Digital Assets: “2024 was a pivotal year for digital assets, and we’re seeing strong momentum toward adoption. More and more institutional investors — on both the buy- and sell-side — continue to be getting engaged with this technology. We also saw a lot of progress on the regulatory front, with the SEC’s approval of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in 2024, and the first stages of the E.U.’s MiCA [Markets in Crypto-Assets], the first-ever blockchain-related asset regulation, coming into effect.”
Some Educated & Wild Guesses
- From Crisil Coalition Greenwich: “ESG rift divides a global industry: The election of Trump will make an already complicated situation even more challenging for global asset managers attempting to navigate diverging views on ESG investing.”
- From Saxo Bank’s 2025 Outrageous Predictions: Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar: “In 2025, the new Trump administration overhauls the entire nature of the U.S. relationship with the world, slapping massive tariffs on all imports, while slashing deficits with the help of an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The implications for the U.S. dollar are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the U.S. dollar. Instead, safety valves are found, as global financial actors scramble for alternatives. … The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the U.S. dollar falls 20 percent against major currencies and 30 percent versus gold. The U.S. economy continues to reflate, but wages keep up with goods inflation, as production resources reshore to the U.S., giving U.S. exporters an advantage.”
- From EY: “Regulation that prioritizes national interests will drive greater fragmentation: Domestic political agendas rather than international coordination efforts will increasingly shape regulation. Although efforts to coordinate internationally will continue, we expect policymakers to prioritize country-specific approaches to issues including financial stability, digital assets, artificial intelligence (A.I.) and data governance. In important areas, such as the Basel 3.1 banking reforms, the effects are already becoming clear, with rules being implemented in different forms and at different speeds around the world. In some jurisdictions, we may see increased pressure for deregulation and concerns about international competitiveness. That may drive local advantage and arbitrage scenarios, but for firms operating globally, it may also increase fragmentation and cost. We may also see countries adopt different standards on innovation or technology, for example in relation to A.I. regulation or if the U.S. takes a more open stance on crypto tokens.”
- From me: The Honorable Mentions:
- The open source movement on Wall Street and beyond will continue to grow in 2025 as firms large and small achieve a greater level of trust in efforts that are mutually beneficial.
- As the regulators bring clarity to digital assets, tokens, central bank digital currencies, and so forth, custodians old and new could have a banner year crafting and offering digital custody
- As T+1 settlement moves closer to reality in the U.K., Continental Europe, and Asia-Pacific over the coming years, these countries will learn key lessons from the pioneering T+1 effort in North America last year. They will find ways to hold the line on visible and hidden aspects of shorter settlement infrastructures that could get expensive. Steps will also be taken to one day harmonize T+1 cycles across the globe.
- Lastly, financial markets in North America may show themselves to be ready for exchanges that operate as close as possible to a 24-hour cycle per day. With the SEC giving the green light to the 24X National Exchange, LLC, many firms will be tempted by the prospect of trading U.S. securities 23 hours each day, five days a week.
